How Advanced Stats Like xG (Expected Goals) Are Changing Soccer Betting

Soccer betting has long been about analyzing team form, player performance, and historical data. But with the rise of advanced analytics in sports, one metric has stood out as a game-changer: Expected Goals (xG). For bettors looking to gain an edge, understanding xG and how to apply it to their strategies is essential.

In this article, we’ll explore what xG is, how it’s calculated, why it matters, and how you can use it to make smarter soccer bets.

What Is xG (Expected Goals)?

Expected Goals (xG) is a statistical metric used to measure the quality of chances a team or player creates during a game. It assigns a value between 0 and 1 to every shot, indicating the likelihood of it resulting in a goal. The higher the xG, the better the scoring opportunity.

As an example:

• A penalty kick has an xG of around 0.76 (76% chance of scoring).
• A shot from outside the box might have an xG of 0.05 (5% chance of scoring).

This metric helps analyze performance beyond just goals scored, providing a deeper understanding of how well a team or player is creating and converting chances.

How Is xG Calculated?

xG is calculated using historical data and considers several factors that influence a shot’s likelihood of being a goal, including:

• Shot Location – How close is the shot to the goal?
• The angle of the Shot – Is the shot taken from a favorable angle?
• Type of Assist – Was the ball played through a pass, cross, or rebound?
• Body Part Used – Was the shot taken with the foot, head, or another body part?
• Defensive Pressure – Were defenders blocking or pressuring the shooter?

These factors are weighted using complex algorithms and databases of thousands of past shots, providing a reliable metric for evaluating scoring opportunities.

Why Does xG Matter in Soccer Betting?

Reveals Underlying Performance

xG allows bettors to look beyond the final score. A team might have won 1-0, but if their xG was significantly lower than their opponent’s, it could indicate a lucky win rather than dominance. Conversely, a team that consistently generates high xG but fails to score might be undervalued in future games.

Identifies Regression to the Mean

Overperforming or underperforming teams often regress to the mean over time. For example.

A team consistently scoring more goals than their xG suggests might be overachieving and could struggle to maintain their form.

Conversely, a team underperforming their xG might be due for a turnaround, presenting a betting opportunity.

Improves Betting Predictions

xG can be used to predict future outcomes with greater accuracy than traditional metrics like possession or shots on target. By analyzing a team’s xG over several matches, bettors can gauge their true form and potential.

How to Use xG in Your Betting Strategy

1. Analyze Team Performance Trends

Look at a team’s xG over their past 5-10 matches to identify patterns. Teams consistently generating high xG are more likely to score goals in the long run, even if results haven’t gone their way recently.

2. Spot Value in Underrated Teams

Bookmakers often base odds on results rather than performance metrics. If a team has lost several games but their xG indicates they’re creating quality chances, they might offer excellent value in the betting market.

3. Use xG for Over/Under Betting

xG is particularly useful for betting on total goals markets. If both teams in a match generate high xG, it’s a good indicator that the game could go over the expected goal line.

4. Combine xG with Other Metrics

While xG is powerful, it’s not infallible. Use it alongside other metrics like possession, passing accuracy, and defensive xG (xGA) to get a complete picture of a team’s performance.

5. Evaluate Individual Players

xG can also be applied to individual player performance. Strikers who consistently outperform their xG might have exceptional finishing skills, while those underperforming could struggle with confidence or decision-making.

Real-Life Examples of xG in Action

Underrated Team with High xG

A mid-table team might have lost three matches in a row but generated xG of 2.0+ in each game. This suggests they’re creating chances but struggling to convert. Betting on them in their next match might offer value, especially against weaker opponents.

Overperforming Team with Low xG

A top-tier team might be on a winning streak, but if their xG is significantly lower than their goals scored, it could indicate they’re relying on luck or individual brilliance. Betting against them when facing stronger opposition could pay off.

Tools to Track xG Data

Using Expected Goals (xG) data is essential for bettors who want to analyze team and player performance effectively. Here are the best tools for accessing reliable xG statistics and how they can enhance your betting strategy

Understat

Understat provides detailed xG data for top European leagues, including the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, and more. It features user-friendly visuals such as shot maps and xG charts, allowing bettors to analyze how teams and players perform in specific situations. It’s ideal for identifying trends and spotting value in upcoming matches.

FBref

FBref offers a comprehensive range of soccer statistics, including xG, Expected Assists (xA), and other advanced metrics. It covers leagues and competitions worldwide and includes historical data for in-depth trend analysis. With its detailed team and player breakdowns, it’s perfect for bettors who want a holistic view of performance.

SofaScore

SofaScore tracks live xG during matches, making it a fantastic tool for in-play betting. It also includes additional stats like player ratings, possession percentages, and shot maps, helping bettors keep up with the flow of the game in real-time. This makes it particularly valuable for bettors looking to adjust their wagers mid-match.

WhoScored

WhoScored integrates xG data into its match reports and player analysis. It provides additional insights like heat maps, team statistics, and player ratings, making it a versatile tool for both pre-match and post-match evaluation. Bettors can use it to assess team performance trends and player effectiveness.

Conclusion

Expected Goals (xG) has revolutionized soccer analysis, offering bettors a more accurate way to evaluate team and player performance. By focusing on the quality of chances rather than just the outcomes, xG helps identify value in betting markets and spot opportunities that might otherwise go unnoticed.

To succeed with xG, it’s essential to stay informed, use reliable data sources, and combine it with other metrics for a well-rounded betting strategy. As the sports betting landscape evolves, tools like xG are becoming indispensable for those looking to gain an edge.